NFL Play Offs

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NFL Play Offs

Postby Flipside » Sat Jan 04, 2014 9:35 pm

NFL WILDCARD ANALYSIS


KANSAS CITY (11-5) at INDIANAPOLIS (11-5)

Saturday, January 4, 2014

INDIANAPOLIS 24 - Kansas City 17--Regular-season results are not a foolproof indicator of playoff outcomes, but a quick review of previous meetings are usually in order when teams renew acquaintances in the playoffs. Especially in the case of K.C. and Indy, which faced off just two weeks ago at Arrowhead. Both teams had already clinched spots in the playoffs before kickoff, but the 7-point underdog Colts were the sharper of the two teams in a somewhat-surprising 23-7 win. Spotting the Chiefs a 7-0 lead, Indy proceeded to dominate the rest of the game, with QB Andrew Luck methodically picking apart the K.C. defense by completing 26 of 37 passes. The Chiefs did themselves no favors by fumbling six times, giving away three of those, en route to losing the TO battle 4-0 in arguably their sloppiest performance of the season.

That result was part of a 2-5 K.C. SU mark its last seven games, as the team flattened considerably after a 9-0 break from the gate for new HC Andy Reid. A review of the K.C. schedule suggests that the Chiefs took advantage of a very favorable slate in the first half of the campaign before the competition became tougher late in the season.

Further, if there is something to be learned from the first meeting, it's the fine line walked by Kansas City, which was at its best this season when QB Alex Smith was able to execute Reid's low-risk, bulletproof gameplan. But the Chiefs have little room for error, and we have legitimate concerns about Smith when forced to play from behind, which can also somewhat minimize the impact of top threat RB Jamaal Charles (1287 YR).

While December momentum doesn't always carry into the playoffs, Indy did finish the regular season on the ascent, impressively winning and covering its last three. Moreover, if there is a difference-maker on the field, it is the Colts' Luck, who has been getting time to throw lately (only 4 sacks the past 5 games) and whose skills are able to compensate for Indy's often-choppy infantry. And if QB play is to determine the outcome, Luck is more likely than K.C. counterpart Smith to fire the deciding scoring shots.

(13-Indy 23-K. CITY 7...I.19-18 K.20/155 I.34/135 I.26/37/0/232 K.16/29/2/132 I.0 K.2)

(12-Indy 20-K. CITY 13...K.22-16 K.44/352 I.26/90 I.17/36/0/198 K.10/22/2/155 I.0 K.1)

(13-Indianapolis +7 23-7; 12-Indianapolis -6' 20-13...SR: Indianapolis 15-8)

NEW ORLEANS (11-5) at PHILADELPHIA (10-6)

Saturday, January 4, 2014

New Orleans 24 - PHILADELPHIA 21--Let's state the obvious right away. The hot Eagles have won 7 of their last 8 games (covering 5 of the 8). The Saints, despite protestations from themselves that they don't drop off much away from their beloved Superdome, were only 3-5 SU on the road (1-7 vs. the spread). In the friendly confines of their home dome, they were 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 vs. the number.

However, when you throw in the experience quotient on each side of this contest, the picture becomes more mixed. Philly HC Chip Kelly is in his first go-round in the NFL, with all its unusual twists and turns. QB Nick Foles (a righteous 27 TDs vs. only 2 ints. TY!) will be making only his 17th career start in the NFL; his first in the playoffs. Those QB stats pale in comparison to the numbers posted by future Hall-of-Fame QB Drew Brees, who already owns a Super Bowl ring, and N.O. head man Sean Payton.

This is not to say the Eagles cannot excel. They already have this season, winning the NFC East title with a 10-6 mark. And their OL has remained healthy virtually all season, while the big uglies' excellent work--combined with Kelly's unique offensive schemes--have helped quick RB Shady McCoy carve out the coveted NFL rushing title with 1507 YR.

However, it is a fact that the Philly defense has largely been in rebuilding mode this season, with either youngsters or new starters occupying more than half a dozen positions. And, while the leadership from veterans such as ILB DeMeco Ryans and OLB Trent Cole has been invaluable, there have been notable vulnerabilities. The Eagles are only 5-7 as favorites. And Philly's last two wins have come against the defenseless Bears and mostly-defenseless Cowboys (using their backup QB). Another win/cover came in Green Bay with Seneca Wallace & Scott Tolzien at the controls for the Pack. While much of the NFC East was in self-destruct mode for most of 2013, New Orleans was hacking its way through the much tougher NFC South, not to mention making treks to virtually invulnerable New England and Seattle.

The Saints (only 98 YR last week vs. T.B.) will have to balance things up a little better if they want to advance in the postseason. However, in this first game, the QB and coaching matchups are not unfavorable for N.O., and most NFL insiders concede the Saints' defense (19 ppg TY, vs. Philly's 24 ppg) has developed more than anticipated under coordinator Rob Ryan.

(12-N. ORL. 28-Phil. 13-P...P.24-20 P.29/221 N.25/140 N.21/27/0/231 P.22/41/1/226 N.2 P.1)

(12-NEW ORLEANS -3 28-13...SR: Philadelphia 16-12)

SAN DIEGO (9-7) at CINCINNATI (11-5)

Sunday, January 5, 2014

CINCINNATI 29 - San Diego 16-- Perhaps we should check with Al Roker and the chance of a weather forecast similar to the last time these two met in the playoffs, a memorable 1981 AFC title game at old Riverfront Stadium, also referred to as the "Freezer Bowl" when the kickoff temperature was an icy -9 and wind chill an even more frigid -38. All part of a 27-7 Cincy win that propelled it into Super Bowl XVI against the 49ers.

There is more recent history between the Bengals and Bolts, who met five weeks ago at Qualcomm Stadium in a game won by Cincy, 17-10. Off of their bye, the Bengals ran the ball effectively (164 YR) and held Philip Rivers and the San Diego "O" to its lowest output of the season. At the time, the Chargers' playoff chances appeared about as remote as ice freezing over Mission Bay, but the Chargers proceeded to win their last four and barely squeezed into the postseason when the Dolphins and Ravens both cooperated by losing last Sunday.

This might anger San Diego "homers" like Padres play-by-play voice Ted Leitner (which is our intent-sort of), but we wonder about the playoff-worthiness of a San Diego squad that, gifted with a "win and in" scenario, was outplayed much of last Sunday by a K.C. squad using backup QB Chase Daniel, surviving into OT only because Chiefs PK Ryan Succop missed a 41-yard FG by inches at the death of regulation. Meanwhile, Cincy enters the playoffs 8-0 SU and vs. the line this season at Paul Brown Stadium. Which is an important distinction, as the Bengals suffered wildcard exits the past two seasons on the road at Houston.

Cincy, which effectively dealt with many injuries TY, appears better equipped to advance in its third postseason try behind QB Andy Dalton, who tossed a career-best 33 TDP while WR A.J. Green (98 catches) blossomed into one of the NFL's most feared deep threats. Rookie RB Gio Bernard also added a big-play element absent the past two years. And if there are clues from the first meeting, the Bengals' ability to run effectively as the game progressed and wear down the Bolts (who allowed a hefty 4.7 ypc TY), not to mention keeping Ryan Mathews and the S.D. infantry in relative check, appear to be significant indicators for the rematch.

(13-Cincy 17-S. DIEGO 10...19-19 C.38/164 S.24/91 S.23/37/1/243 C.14/23/1/190 C.1 S.2)

(12-Cincy 20-S. DIEGO 13...C.21-20 C.32/128 S.11/46 S.26/48/1/251 C.25/38/2/211 C.1 S.1)

(13-Cincinnati +1 17-10; 12-Cincinnati -1 20-13...SR: San Diego 19-14)

SAN FRANCISCO (12-4) at GREEN BAY (8-7-1)

Sunday, January 5, 2014

San Francisco 29 - GREEN BAY 22--The Packers are delighted to have back QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Randall Cobb after substantial absences. The dynamic pair combined for the winning TD last week against the sloppy Chicago defense. Too bad for G.B. that this has been a nightmare matchup for the Pack since former Bear QB Jim Harbaugh arrived in San Francisco. The 49ers out-muscled G.B. 30-22 at Lambeau in 2012's opener (Alex Smith at the controls for S.F.). Then, with Colin Kaepernick at QB in the Divisional Round in 2012, the Niners ran away from Rodgers & Co. 45-31 at Candlestick, with Kaepernick rushing for an NFL-record 181 QB yards. In this year's season opener, with the Pack looking for revenge and determined to shut down Kaepernick's runs, the long-limbed QB burned the G.B. secondary for 412 YP and 3 TDP in a 34-28 win--and that was before former top target Michael Crabtree had returned from an offseason torn Achilles. During those three meetings, the Harbaugh 49ers have won the rushing battle in all three contests, by a cumulative count of 599-222.

Yes, the Pack still wants a piece of Kaepernick and the Niners after LY's startling playoff loss in San Francisco. And G.B. now has a ground force of its own in rookie RB Eddie Lacy (1178 YR), who boasts considerable seasoning. Aforementioned deep-threat WR Cobb returned just in time last week from a fibula fracture. But can you count on Rodgers and Cobb to be at their best vs. the well-balanced S.F. defense, which bends a little, but rarely breaks? The Packers are still missing a slew of quality players (e.g., OLB Clay Matthews, TE Jermichael Finley, DT Johnny Jolly, RB/KR DuJaun Harris), and their OL and secondary have not exactly been bastions of consistency.

Meanwhile, the 49ers are getting healthier, regaining WR Crabtree and powerful G Mike Iupati in recent games to go with the veteran likes of RB Frank Gore, WR Anquan Boldin, and TE deluxe Vernon Davis. With rookie S Eric Reid and emerging CB Tramaine Brock now fixtures on defense, S.F. has won six straight games and 11 of its last 13. Kaepernick (only 4 ints. his last 13 games)--born in Milwaukee--will have to be at his mistake-free best to beat the renowned Rodgers. But the same for the latter, who will be facing a much more conscientious and bruising defense than Aa-Rod saw last week in Chicago.

(13-S. FRAN. 34-G. Bay 28...23-23 S.34/90 G.19/63 S.27/39/0/404 G.21/37/1/322 S.0 G.1)

(12-S. Fran. 30-G. BAY 22...S.22-21 S.32/186 G.14/45 G.30/44/1/279 S.20/26/0/191 S.0 G.0)

(12-S. FRAN. 45-G. Bay 31...S.29-20 S.43/323 G.16/104 S.17/31/1/256 G.26/39/1/248 S.0 G.1)

(13-S. FRAN. -5 34-28; 12-S. Fra. +5 30-22, S. FRA. -3 45-31 (NFC Playoffs)...SR: G.B. 34-29-1)

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Ianovich » Sat Jan 04, 2014 11:59 pm

Kansas 31-10 and not even HT :lol: :lol:

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Ianovich » Sun Jan 05, 2014 1:24 am

cracking game 41-31 and Indi on the attack

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Ianovich » Sun Jan 05, 2014 1:26 am

41-38 still over 10 minutes to go

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Henke7 » Sun Jan 05, 2014 1:33 am

Defences on top........

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Ianovich » Sun Jan 05, 2014 2:23 am

45-44 Indi got up :OFFS: :lol:

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Ianovich » Sun Jan 05, 2014 2:57 am

Next one 0-0 after Q1 :OFFS:

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Flipside » Sun Jan 05, 2014 11:19 am

They tipped the two underdogs in the first two games and they both came through.

Interesting game in Wisconsin tonight, they are predicting -26 degrees. How will that affect the fairweather Californians from San Francisco?

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Ianovich » Sun Jan 05, 2014 9:39 pm

San Diego 10 ahead and just got an interception...looks like they have this one in the bag. Bengals QB having a shocker.

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Flipside » Sun Jan 05, 2014 9:46 pm

I'm all over the 49ers -3 in the next :Gun:

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Flipside » Sun Jan 05, 2014 9:53 pm

Ianovich wrote:San Diego 10 ahead and just got an interception...looks like they have this one in the bag. Bengals QB having a shocker.


Dalton... Ginger coont

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Ianovich » Sun Jan 05, 2014 9:54 pm

If that bloke had caught the long pass just now it might be a lot closer

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Flipside » Sun Jan 05, 2014 10:02 pm

Bengals were the biggest favourites of the weekend with a regular season record of 8-0 at home. Very disappointing performance by them

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Ianovich » Sun Jan 05, 2014 10:03 pm

Way too many errors

Game over ....

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Flipside » Sun Jan 05, 2014 10:05 pm

Icing on the cake

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Flipside » Mon Jan 06, 2014 12:07 am

49ers 13 GB 10 at the half

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Ianovich » Mon Jan 06, 2014 1:16 am

20-17 SF with 10 minutes to go

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Ianovich » Mon Jan 06, 2014 1:43 am

SF win it with a late FG

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Ianovich » Sun Jan 12, 2014 10:26 pm

SF beat Carolina easy..

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Trampas » Sun Jan 12, 2014 10:31 pm

cam was far from super

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Ianovich » Mon Jan 13, 2014 12:23 am

Denver cruising through at the moment :relaxed:

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Trampas » Mon Jan 13, 2014 8:18 am

Pretty poor games this weekend

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Ianovich » Mon Jan 13, 2014 1:26 pm

binky wrote: :beglee:



It was Denver - not John Denver

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Flipside » Mon Jan 13, 2014 6:18 pm

forgot to post this weeks...

They had Seattle by 11. Spread was 9.5 and they won by 8 so a loser

New England by 3 spread was NE -7. They pissed it by about 20 so a loser again

San Francisco by 6 and the spread was scratch, they won by 13 so a winner

Denver by 3. spread was 8 and they won by 7 so a winner.


Will post Conference games picks if I remember

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Trampas » Mon Jan 13, 2014 6:43 pm

Denver 4.5
Seattle 3

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Flipside » Mon Jan 13, 2014 7:46 pm

Trampas wrote:Denver 4.5
Seattle 3


Seattle 3.5 on the whole, bigger odds on if you want the -3

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Flipside » Sat Jan 18, 2014 2:26 pm

NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS


NEW ENGLAND (13-4) at DENVER (14-3)

Saturday, January 19, 2014

DENVER 38 - New England 27
--The more things change, the more they stay the same. So it goes in the AFC, where it might as well be January of 2003, 2004, or 2007 again. Because, one more time, it's another installment of Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning, facing off in the playoffs for the fourth time in 11 years and for the third time with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. The only difference from the past being that Manning now wears the jersey of the Denver Broncos instead of the Indianapolis Colts.

Since there is so much history between these QBs and their sides, a quick revisit of past results is in order. Mostly, those have favored the Patriots and Brady, now 10-4 SU in his career vs. Manning (2-0 since Peyton joined the Broncos last year), including a wild, and sloppy (11 fumbles!), 34-31 OT win at Gillette Stadium on November 24 when New England stormed back from a 24-0 halftime deficit. Brady also outpassed Manning 344-150, although Denver was sitting on a lead much of the night, and was also running roughshod with Knowshon Moreno high-stepping for a staggering 224 YR. In the end, the contest was decided by a fluke play when a Patriot punt in OT bounced off Denver's Tony Carter. Two plays later, N.E.'s Stephen Gostkowski kicked a 31-yard FG to decide the matter.

It should also be noted that in the Brady vs. Manning history, the vast majority of the games have been played in Foxborough, including the past two seasons when the Pats won on each occasion. When Manning had home edge in the playoffs, however, his Indy rallied for a win in the 2006 AFC title game at the old RCA Dome. And while Brady is 18-7 SU in the playoffs, he's only 4-5 in his last nine postseason games. He's also 0-1 in the playoffs at Denver, losing 27-13 to the Jake Plummer-led Broncos in the 2005 postseason.

Enough of the travel back in time. While the Brady and Manning-related angles will be discussed this week in the media ad nauseam, the supporting casts will also be playing key roles. For the Patriots, shades of long ago power-back Jim Nance, as recent contributions of LeGarrette Blount (team-record 334 total yards in reg.-season finale vs. Bills, then another 166 YR and 4 TDs vs. the Colts in the Division Round) have added another dimension to the Brady offense, which has also had an entire season to adjust to a revamped receiving corps that now features pint-sized Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola (combined 159 reg.-season catches). But those two (only 8 TDs between them) do not provide big targets in the red zone as did the now-injured TE Rob Gronkowski. And by Brady's past lofty standards, his 25 TDP this season are rather modest.

There are obvious questions about the Denver defense being up to the challenge, although the Bronco stop unit played arguably its best game of the season last week against San Diego, stacking up the Chargers' ball-control infantry and harassing QB Philip Rivers, who was ineffective until Denver began playing loose in the 4th Q with a handy lead. And Denver was not as bad as advertised TY vs. the run (only 3.9 ypc). We believe there are more issues with a Patriot "D" that has been ravaged by injuries worse than the Broncos and that recently lost another key cog, LB Brandon Spikes. Ranked 29th vs. the run, the Pats were already trampled once by the Denver infantry this term. Despite Bill Belichick's noted scheming, this was hardly a vintage N.E. defensive platoon.

While there is an obvious temptation to grab the Pats in a rare underdog role (in which they are 20-5-2 since 2003), we do not compare this edition, which lost SU in half of its road games, to past Belichick powerhouses. New England rarely slowed a competent offense this season, and was able to benefit from some killer mistakes by 2nd-year Colts QB Andrew Luck last week in the Division Round (in a game that somewhat resembled last year's Division Round cruise past Houston before a rude upending in the AFC title game vs. Baltimore). Though Denver was a bit looser with the ball itself late in the season, the precision-laden Manning (55 TDP and only 10 picks in 2013) is not as apt as his young Indy successor Luck to self-destruct.

With all of the key offensive skill-position weapons on the field for the first time since early November (and key ex-Pat WR Wes Welker back in the fold after missing late-December action with a concussion), Denver's record-setting offense has plenty of gears, and Manning was able to hit the accelerator when necessary last week vs. the Chargers when the Broncos mostly were in ball-control mode. We expect Denver can do as much damage as it needs to do vs. this less-than-dominant N.E. defense. Remember, all but one of Denver's wins have been by 7 points or more TY. It's also not 2004...and the Brady-Belichick Patriots have proven far from indestructible in playoff action the past decade.

(13-N. ENG. 34-Den. 31 (OT)...D.28-27 D.48/280 N.31/116 N.34/50/0/324 D.19/36/1/132 N.3 D.1)

(12-N. ENG. 31-Denver 21...N.35-22 N.54/251 D.20/70 D.31/44/0/332 N.23/31/0/193 N.1 D.3)

(13-NEW ENGLAND +2' 34-31 (OT); 12-NEW ENGLAND -6' 31-21...SR: Denver 27-20)

SAN FRANCISCO (14-4) at SEATTLE (14-3)

Saturday night, January 19, 2014

San Francisco 20 - SEATTLE 18-
-What's this deal? In fact, it's the third meeting this season between former heated college conference rivals Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll. Seattle won the first 2013 meeting 29-3 in Week Two vs. the Crabtree-less 49ers, with the score 5-0 Seahawks at the half. But an eventual total of 5 takeaways (3 ints.) and 98 Marshawn Lynch rushing yards (2 TDs) helped the Hawks cruise through the tape. In their Game-13 rematch at Candlestick, the 49ers won a back-and-forth battle 19-17 on a FG with 26 seconds to play.

Of immediate concern for S.F. is the loss of their second FB of the season, as 293-pound hammer Will Tufuaku (check status) appears out with a leg injury. This after accomplished lead blocker Bruce Miller was lost earlier in the season. Thus, offensive coordinator Greg Roman will have to adjust his many cleverly-designed run plays (RB/FB Anthony Dixon and No. 3 TE Garrett Celek are likely to be seeing more action). That might make it difficult for S.F. to continue its string of out-rushing its foes in six straight games (beginning with a 163-86 edge over Seattle in Game 14). During that stretch, the Niners own a combined 925-486 rush edge.

That doesn't necessarily mean that S.F. will out-rush Seattle--in Seattle--especially with Lynch causing another "Beast Quake" with his 31-yard, fourth-quarter TDR last week to put away the stubborn Saints. Lynch was 28 for 140 YR last week vs. New Orleans. And he was a combined 36 for 178 YR in two playoff games (both on the road) last season. Lynch will get his yards.

Plus, the Seattle OL--injury-thinned for half the campaign--is now healthy, and has even been augmented by the ascension of 7th-round pick Michael Bowie (a successful "project" from NE State in Oklahoma) at LG. Moreover, the deep Seahawk defense (now +21 in TO differential) is eminently ready to do its thing vs. a Niner team it has defeated 42-13 and 29-3 the last two S.F. visits to the Emerald City.

Where the small edges lie for this underdog are at QB and receiver (now that Michael Crabtree is healthy). The long-limbed Kaepernick is 4-1 as a playoff QB, with his only loss in the Super Bowl to the Ravens, and with three of his victories on the road (indoors at Atlanta LY; at near-zero temperatures at Green Bay and at sunny Carolina TY). In his last 8 games (all wins), Kap has accumulated 12 TDs vs. only two interceptions. Meanwhile, in Russell Wilson's last five games, the Seattle QB has tailed off from his numbers of the first three quarters of the season, with 4 TDs vs. 3 picks. Yes, it was a bit wet and a bit windy last week, but Wilson was off target on numerous relatively easy shots to open receivers. Moreover, key WR Percy Harvin (check status) of the Hawks was banged up again vs. the Saints.

In contrast, the glue-fingered Crabtree has 24 recs. in his last 5 games, including 13 for 125 yards at "Frigidaire Field" in Green Bay. Then, while Crabtree was drawing extra attention in Charlotte, old, slow (not to mention Super Bowl champion) Anquan Boldin caught 8 passes for 136 yds. vs. the physical, over-amped Panther defense. TE Vernon Davis has a TDC in each of S.F.'s playoff games TY.

Truly, the Seahawks' secondary is among the best in recent years. However, it can be argued that the Niners' unit (fifth vs. the pass this season) has improved during the campaign as rookie standout S Eric Reid (4 ints.) has learned the tricks of the trade and as emerging CB Tramaine Brock (5 ints.) has flashed starter's ability. Arizona, a 17-10 victor, four weeks ago proved that Seattle is not invulnerable at CenturyLink Field. And S.F. goes into this contest with all the coaching, QBing, receivers, defense, confidence (3-0 SU as a visitor in the postseason since last year) and momentum needed to pull a small upset in Jim Harbaugh's third NFC title game in as many years with the team.

(13-SEA. 29-S. Fran. 3...Se.19-12 Se.47/172 Sf.20/100 Se.8/19/1/118 Sf.13/28/3/107 Se.0 Sf.2)

(13-S. FRAN. 19-Sea. 17...Sf.19-13 Sf.33/163 Se.23/86 Se.15/25/1/178 Sf.15/29/1/155 Sf.0 Se.0)

(12-S. FRAN. 13-Sea. 6...Sf.18-13 Sf.32/175 Se.29/136 Sf.14/23/1/138 Se.9/23/1/115 Sf.0 Se.0)

(12-SEA. 42-S. Fran. 13...Se.22-17 Se.39/176 Sf.19/82 Sf.19/36/1/231 Se.15/22/1/170 Se.0 Sf.1)

(13-SEA. -3 29-3, S. FRAN. -2' 19-17; 12-S. FRAN. -7' 13-6, SEA. -2 42-13...SR: EVEN 15-15)

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby brogie » Sun Jan 19, 2014 8:47 pm

Thinking home advantage will be the key for these 2 games

Many going peyton v brady, but both are different qb's to those when it was pats v indy. pats have a big running game now and at less reliant on brady while manning has so many weapons to throw to. I think broncos will win in a shootout by about 10

Seahawks v 49ers could be an epic defensive struggle. Both qbs have potential to move with ball with their feet, and russell may need to be at his best on the ground as porcelain harvin is out. The beast lynch will be running all day, but i think this one may come down to a field goal. going with seahawks 12th man to deafen the 49ers enough to get their team home by 3

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby brogie » Sun Jan 19, 2014 8:49 pm

had demaryious thomas as first td scorer last week. gonna go again. 8/1 with PP and double that if he has first td and then scores again

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Ianovich » Sun Jan 19, 2014 8:55 pm

Denver to win by 18

Seahawks by 12

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Trampas » Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:57 am

Hawks vs Broncos in the bowl.

Pats were shit

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Ianovich » Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:27 pm

[youtube]C3vNAYLnANg[/youtube]

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Trampas » Fri Jan 31, 2014 12:18 pm

Superbowl Sunday.

As a 9ers fan I hope Denver win

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby Flipside » Fri Jan 31, 2014 10:25 pm

SUPER BOWL ANALYSIS


SEATTLE (15-3) vs. DENVER (15-3)

Sunday, February 2, 2014

(2013 Preseason: Seattle -5 beat Denver 40-10 at Seattle)

(10-DENVER -3' 31-14...SR: Denver 34-19)

LOOKING AT SEATTLE

More than anything else, the Seahawks are a reflection of their fiery, ever-optimistic coach, who drives them with his seemingly bottomless pool of energy and enthusiasm. The players have bought into Pete Carroll's credo of constantly competing, whether it be in practice or on every play in every game. With that attitude and approach, Carroll has created a winning mentality in his four years in the Emerald City, a mentality that allows his team to fight through injuries (of which Seattle has had plenty this season) and suspensions (of which the Seahawks have had more than their share). With such a high-octane, constant-competition approach, Seattle has overcome nearly all its difficult moments in 2013, including winning straight-up all three times the Seahawks have trailed by 10 points or more (the last occasion being vs. San Francisco in the NFC title game).

Typifying the Carroll approach is RB Marshawn Lynch (1257 YR, 12 TDR), who has repeatedly fired up his teammates by launching into his "Beast Mode" runs, with the best of his relentless, refuse-to-go-down forays generating "Beast Quakes" when the ultra-loud Seattle fans have erupted into ground-shaking, Richter-registering cheering.

But Carroll's pride and joy is his team's swaggering defense that was No. 1 in the NFL in pass defense, total defense, scoring defense, takeaways, and turnover margin. An underappreciated key has been a front four that is two-deep in aggressive, rotating pass rushers, permitting the Seahawks to most often pressure without blitzing, thus allowing MLB Bobby Wagner (120 tackles) and LB-sized SS Kam Chancellor (99 Ts) to press the line of scrimmage and help stuff the run. Meanwhile, OLB K.J. Wright (now returned from a foot injury) has become one of the best cover LBs in the league. Then there is super-quick and very-physical Richard Sherman--as close as there is to a true lockdown CB--who led the NFL in interceptions (with 8) and in post-game bloviation (with way more than enough). Earl Thomas (5 ints., 105 Ts) is a highly-valued deep free safety with both good coverage ability and a nose for the ball. Meanwhile, third-year CB Byron Maxwell (4 ints.) has played so well filling in that multi-suspended starting CB Brandon Browner is not likely to be re-signed.

Perhaps best of all, the Seattle defense "travels" well, as the Seahawks have given up only 15.1 ppg on the road, just a tick more than their 14.2 ppg at home. Seattle has held its last nine foes to 20 points or fewer, four of those to 15 or fewer. Drew Brees and the Saints' proven aerial show managed only 7 and 15 points in two games vs. the Hawks (albeit both in the Seattle triple-decibel noise box that is CenturyLink Field). San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick arguably gave the Seattle defense more problems with his legs (11 for 130 rushing) than with his arm (14 of 24, 153 YP, 2 ints.) in the NFC title game. But if 37-year-old Peyton Manning (-4 YR his last six seasons) runs for 130 yards in this Super Bowl, there will be a lead story like no other in Monday's papers.

Seahawk coaches are hoping they will see the same Russell Wilson (16 of 25) in this contest that they saw vs. the tough S.F. defense in the NFC title game, when the mobile & heady second-year QB (63.1%, 26 TDs, 9 ints., 539 YR in 2013) snapped out of a five-game flat spot during which Wilson was frequently off target on many basic throws and connected for only 4 TDs vs. 3 interceptions. A major reason for the optimism that Wilson is indeed "back" is the return to practice of dynamic WR/KR Percy Harvin, who has had a noticeable impact in the only two games (Minnesota; N.O. in the playoff meeting) he has been able to play, due to injury (hip, then concussion). It must be noted that the Seahawk offense (17th in yards, 9th in scoring) was frequently limited in the regular season because of injuries in its OL, where some starters missed half the season and where third-teamers occasionally saw action. That OL platoon--led by C Max Unger & LT Russell Okung--is ready to go for the Super Bowl.

There has been plenty of concern in Seattle TY about the team's receiving corps, which has missed injured impact wideouts Sidney Rice (only 15 recs.; still out) and Harvin (only one in the regular season) for virtually all of 2013. TEs Zach Miller (33 recs., 5 TDs) & Luke Wilson (20, 1 TD) will never be mistaken for the Saints' speedy, rangy Jimmy Graham. But they usually do enough to get the job done, as do WRs Golden Tate (64 recs.), Doug Baldwin (50) and Jermaine Kearse (22), who have combined for 14 TD catches and dozens of clutch receptions along the way in the absence of Rice & Harvin. PK Steven Hauschka has been outstanding, hitting 33 of 35 in the regular season and 6 of 6 in the playoffs.

It has been pointed out, and rightly so, that no player on the Seahawk roster has any Super Bowl experience. The last team in the NFL championship game in a similar situation was Buffalo of the 1990 season, and we all know what happened to the Bills (four straight Super Bowls; four straight losses). While Denver HC John Fox and QB Peyton Manning both have valuable Super Bowl experience, Seattle's Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson do not. But it should be pointed out that Carroll, in addition to his outstanding run at USC (two national titles, although one was vacated, and within seconds of a third), helped construct and instruct many of the defenders that Bill Belichick inherited when Belichick took over the Patriots in 2000. As for Wilson, he is 24-8 SU as a regular-season starter, plus 3-1 in the playoffs, for a 27-9 overall record, matching Ben Roethlisberger's 27 wins for the most in the first two years of his career in the Super Bowl era.



LOOKING AT DENVER

"There is no Plan B." So go the famous words of Broncos team prexy John Elway regarding the current Denver edition that made no provisions to reach the Super Bowl without QB Peyton Manning, who is concluding perhaps the most-prolific season in NFL annals in his second Denver campaign after a decorated career in Indy that ended with his season-ending neck injury in 2011 and subsequent chance for the Colts to draft Stanford's Andrew Luck in 2012. The Manning Mile High revival includes a 26-6 reg.-season mark the past two years and a smashing of league single-season records in 2013, including passing yards (5477) and TD tosses (55) en route to engineering the highest-scoring offense (606 points!) in NFL history. It looks as if Plan A is working just fine.

Of course, lots of Broncos fans believe their team's appearance in "the Supe" is a year late. Denver, with Manning posting somewhat similar other-worldly numbers, and with a defense that seemed built for the playoff grind, suffered a gut-wrenching 38-35 double-OT loss in the division round at Sports Authority Field last January 12 against the underdog Ravens, a defeat that lingered throughout the offseason after S Rahim Moore misplayed Joe Flacco's rainbow to Jacoby Jones that resulted in a stunning game-tying 70-yard TD pass with just 30 seconds to play. Manning, HC John Fox, and then-o.c. Mike McCoy (now San Diego's HC) would also come under criticism for some overly-cautious play-calling late in the 4th Q as the Broncs were nursing a 7-point lead. Manning would also have to relive his last pass of that game, an interception that led to a game-winning 47-yard Baltimore FG by Justin Tucker.

But the resolve forged from that bitter defeat has reminded many longtime Denver backers of a similar playoff punch-in-the-gut that none other than Elway had to endure from his playing days in the 1996 when a high-flying, Mike Shanahan-coached Broncos team, also with home-field edge throughout the AFC portion of the playoffs, would blow a division-round game vs. the upstart Jags. Fueled by that memory, Denver and Elway would recover to win Super Bowls the next two seasons and erase a stigma that had been attached to the franchise over the previous two decades when the Broncos endured four one-sided "Supe" losses.

Even with Manning and the offense posting record-breaking numbers, the Broncos' path to Super Bowl XLVIII was a bit bumpy. The defense did not dominate, as it often did a year ago, weakened somewhat by a collection of factors that began when a "fax paus" involving the contract renewal for impact LB Elvis Dumervil resulted in the All-Pro leaving for Baltimore instead. A season-opening suspension to another big-time playmaking LB, Von Miller, plus his eventual campaign-ending injury removed another distorting force from the stop unit for much of the season. Various other injuries (which have continued into the postseason, most recently claiming starting CB Chris Harris) often forced d.c. Jack Del Rio into mix-and-match mode as he searched for advantageous combinations. Moreover, coach Fox missed a month of games after the early-November bye week after undergoing heart surgery.

Beyond all of those potential detours, however, have stood Manning and the offense, which added an extra key ingredient n the offseason when inking ex-Patriots WR Wes Welker, whose vast contributions (73 catches despite missing the last 3½ games of the reg. season due to concussion symptoms) provided yet another target for Manning. Welker was one of five Broncos who recorded 10 or more TDs and is part of arguably the most-potent arsenal of receiving threats in NFL history that also features WRs Demaryius Thomas (92 catches and 14 TDs) & Eric Decker (87 receptions and 11 TDs) plus TE Julius Thomas, who emerged with 65 catches and 12 TDs. Along the way, Manning has received pristine protection from an OL that overcame the potential devastating loss of All-Pro LT Ryan Clady to a Lisfranc injury. Manning not only avoided sacks in the playoff games vs. San Diego & New England, he was only touched once (in the Charger game)! Balance is provided by RBs Knowshon Moreno (1038 YR, plus 60 pass receptions, and 13 TDs overall) and Wisconsin rookie Montee Ball (539 YR), who might get more work than usual in the Supe if Moreno's sore ribs limit his contributions. Reliable PK Matt Prater also missed only two FGs and erased Tom Dempsey from the NFL record book with a 64-yard FG vs. the Titans on Dec. 7.

Most interestingly, perhaps, is how the Broncos offense reverted to ball-control mode in the playoffs after so many fireworks displays during the regular season. Manning and Denver have been content to slowly move the chains and run clock in playoff action to date, controlling the ball for more than 35 minutes in handy home wins over the Chargers & Patriots that bore a remarkable similarity to one another.


SUPER BOWL XLVIII

Every so often, a football matchup invites the old "boxer vs. slugger" analogies that have applied for decades of memorable battles in the sweet science and recalls unforgettable wars involving the likes of Sugar Ray Robinson and Jake LaMatta, Ezzard Charles and Rocky Marciano, Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier, Sugar Ray Leonard and Marvin Hagler, and countless others. But such comparisons are not always helpful in gridiron analysis because results of those boxing classics were mostly split along those stylistic battle-lines.

No matter, so it goes for Denver-Seattle, as much of the pre-game analysis will focus on those "boxer" (Broncos) and "slugger" (Seahawks) stereotypes. Which is understandable, as team traits feed into those perceptions. Denver's offense wasn't just the best in the NFL this season, it was arguably the best in pro football history, tallying a record 606 points in the regular season while QB Peyton Manning would set individual marks that we highlighted in our Broncos preview. Meanwhile, Seattle's nasty defense was statistically the NFL's best in 2013. Interestingly, past matchups of top offenses vs. top stop units have happened four times in previous Super Bowls, with the defensive masters ending up on the winning side in three of those battles (San Francisco's 55-10 demolition of the Denver in SB XXIV being the exception).

These teams are also not completely unfamiliar with one another, having met recently in the preseason. For what it's worth, Seattle won decisively in 2012 & 2013 matchups, though we can summarily dismiss those results simply because no head coach low-keys those games any more than Denver's John Fox, and no current HC emphasizes winning those games more than Seattle's Pete Carroll. Besides, Manning also played sparingly in those affairs.

Certainly, weather could also play more of a factor in the first cold-weather Super Bowl, thus making Al Roker's forecast as intriguing as Chris Berman's. But both teams have won in inclement conditions, including pass-oriented Denver, which scored 51 points in single-digit temps in an early December game vs. the Titans. Each side has also beaten the Giants in MetLife Stadium this season, the Broncos rolling 41-23 in September's "Manning Bowl," and the Seahawks grinding out a 23-0 win in wintry weather on December 15. The notorious Meadowlands winds could also prove as much of a hindrance as any potential slush, although it should be noted that the Denver/Manning offense also fared well in extremely-gusty conditions in the division-round win vs. San Diego.

Where, then, might the advantages (or disadvantages) lie?

If championship-game history has taught us anything, it's that flaws are harder to camouflage the deeper a team advances into the postseason. And here is where we believe Seattle could have a problem at the Meadowlands with an offense, and passing game in particular, that has been mostly lurching for the past two months.

While acknowledging the Seahawks' ability (mostly due to RB Marshawn Lynch) to generate big plays when needed in recent games, the aerial assault has been choppy at best lately with QB Russell Wilson rarely able to generate a downfield passing threat, mostly because a decidedly-modest group of Seattle receivers has been having trouble gaining separation from opposing DBs. Since an early December win over the Saints, Wilson has often had nowhere to throw, forced to improvise and buy time before most of his downfield completions, which have become increasingly rare. The possible return of Percy Harvin could alter those dynamics, but after missing almost all of the season due to injuries, Harvin's contributions are hard to gauge. Besides, his strength has always been after-the-catch, not route-running, the latter something a struggling Wilson could use. Indeed, Wilson needs more of a Steve Largent-type at the ready than a Percy Harvin-type these days. And there remain numerous visions of the Hawks offense appearing absolutely helpless this season (at St. Louis and home vs. Arizona in particular, when barely able to generate first downs).

The pro-Seahawks argument will maintain that Seattle can do damage even with modest contributions from Wilson and the passing game due to the punishing Lynch, whose "beast mode" delivered big plays vs. both the Saints and 49ers and should be able to damage a suspect Denver rush defense. Except that the Broncos' rush defense isn't as suspect as many (who continue to refer to San Diego's early-December ball control tactics when gaining 177 YR in a surprising Thursday win at Denver) suggest, allowing a respectable 3.9 ypc in the regular season. Denver's "D" has also been surprisingly robust in the postseason and completely shut down arguably the league's hottest runner, New England's LeGarrette Blount, in the AFC title game. It is worth noting that neither the Chargers nor Patriots were able to establish their infantry diversions with any effect in playoff action against a Broncos "D" now fueled by 330-lb. DT Terrance "Pot Roast" Knighton and ex-Charger DE Shaun Phillips.

Still, the defining matchups likely involve the featured platoons. And while Carroll's adjustments to his "D" since 2012 have made it even more ornery, the Seahawks have not had to deal with a strike force as diverse as Denver's, either. While attacking Richard Sherman's side of the field will be tricky, the surgeon-like Manning is perhaps the most-capable QB of his generation in exploiting any enemy soft spots. Manning's protection has also been airtight all season, more so in the playoffs, and if Carroll has to do more blitzing to get Manning off rhythm, no QB is more adept at capitalizing. Thus, anticipate the Broncos to consistently move the chains and the clock.

We expect SB XLVIII will look a lot like Denver's last two playoff games, with Manning hitting the accelerator as necessary and the Broncos offense playing a patient brand of ball control. Unless Wilson performs better than he has lately, the Seahawks are at more of a disadvantage than merely playing away from their raucous home field...a significant edge they do not bring with them to the Meadowlands.

SCORE FORECAST: DENVER 26 - Seattle 17



THE SUPER BOWL TOTAL

The cold-climate New Jersey/New York venue for this game makes the contest unique in Super Bowl annals. Despite 21st century forecasting tools, there is little argument the X-factor involving the February weather make predictions regarding performance on the field less steady. Still, there appear to be more reasons to support the "under" idea than the "over."

High-scoring Denver, the NFL's premier early-season "over" team (8-0 first eight), has now played five straight "unders," due in part to a slightly altered defense featuring more muscle that helped control the playoff running games of the Chargers and the Patriots. The Seahawks are 11-6-1 "under" this season. Part of Seattle's gameplan on Sunday will be to possess the ball and "eat" the clock in order to minimize the opportunities for the prolific Manning. Also, in the last two rounds of this year's playoffs, officials have allowed plenty of WR/DB give and take, with the hand-wrestling disrupting offensive timing without severe penalty.

Lastly, cold weather--in and of itself--usually does not substantially suppress scoring. But wind often does--taking a little velocity off passes and a bit of accuracy and sometimes distance off FG attempts. Mix a little cold weather with the often swirling winds at MetLife, and the percentages seem to favor the "UNDER."

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Re: NFL Play Offs

Postby viddleodge » Sat Feb 01, 2014 12:42 am

Trampas wrote:Superbowl Sunday.

As a 9ers fan I hope Denver win


as the sultan of smut, i hope there's tons of streakers, boob flashing, wardrobe mishaps, public urination,etc. :titter:


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